Posts Tagged ‘Business’

Wal-Mart redesign cuts magazine aisle in half

Wednesday, September 16th, 2009

Last week I wrote about Wal-Mart’s next-generation store design (Magazines: kick ‘em when they’re down), which moves the magazine rack to the back of the store near music, electronic games, DVD’s and books.

Wal-Mart’s pretty good at figuring out how to maximize the sales of every square foot of space, so while the move is a symbolic kick in the pants to an industry that is suffering from all sorts of afflictions — not the least of which is a big drop in newsstand sales — it was hard to know if the move would really have an impact on the media business.

Well, apparently it does. According to AudienceDevelopment.com, the new store layout will also reduce the length of the magazine rack by 20 feet — approximately 50 percent. That means something on the order of half the magazines you can buy at Wal-Mart today will be unavailable there after each store is remodeled.

Wal-Mart isn’t saying which magazines will get the boot, and according to AudienceDevelopment.com, that decision hasn’t yet been addressed. But, consistent with all of its in-store activities, Wal-Mart officials (not a talkative bunch in the first place) are blunt in saying they’ll keep only the magazines that sell the fastest. Because that’s what Wal-Mart is all about.

It’s good for earnings and it’s good for the publishers that make the cut. But shoppers looking for titles with slightly narrower focus will simply have to go elsewhere.

Because that’s the downside of Wal-Mart and the Big Boxification of retail: Only the most mainstream items in any category – from lumber to breakfast cereal to music to magazines – get shelf space. Wal-Mart is bad for variety.

And in this case, it’s bad for the magazine business. The likely in-store survivors — usual suspects like Cosmo, Maxim, Better Homes & Garden and, (going out on a limb) Guns & Ammo — may see an increase in sales due to the new location, improved merchandising and reduced category competition. But I can’t imagine that the bump will be enough to offset the 20 feet of shelf-space that’s being given to some other retail category.

Face the fact: At the world’s largest store, magazines have just been put within site of the back door.

Newspapers getting closer to a paid-content consensus

Monday, September 14th, 2009

In his blog, Reflections of a Newsosaur, Alan Mutter — a Silicon Valley CEO and a former newspaper reporter, columnist and executive — says nearly half of  newspaper publishers don’t believe they can succeed at charging consumers for content.

I think Mutter sounds like a smart guy, and his blog is great; just having stumbled across it I’ve put it on my blogroll. However, what he sees as the glass half-empty looks to me like it’s half-full. I’m pleased and impressed that just over half of newspaper publishers think they can charge for content.

As Seth Godin, another of my blogroll favorites, says: Success is mostly about your attitude. Which means the newspaper business is half-way home to figuring out how and why people are going to pay for their content. I’m not saying it’s an easy task, or that the tradeoff in revenue — advertising and classified for reader payments — is a neat-and-clean one-to-one swap. (It really doesn’t have to be; online content doesn’t come with huge printing and distribution costst, but that’s a digression). Like I said, I’m pleased to hear that half of the U.S. newspaper industry is giving itself a fighting chance at success.

As for the rest of Mutter’s blog, he’s smarter than I am, so you should just take a look at his more detailed analysis, and at the report that directed me to his blog in the first place.

http://www.mediabuyerplanner.com/entry/45119/half-of-newspaper-publishers-believe-online-pay-walls-will-work/?utm_source=mbp&utm_medium=email&utm_content=textlink&utm_campaign=newsletter

Magazines: Kick ‘em when they’re down

Thursday, September 10th, 2009

A report at the end of August indicated that newsstand sales of magazines were down more than 12% in the first six months of 2009 compared to 2008.

I can only guess why that might be:

  • A sudden lack of spending money by the nearly 10 percent of people who are now unemployed;
  • A general feeling that, with so much news about magazines shutting down and facing financial ruin, they aren’t the attractive impulse buy they once were;
  • Have you seen the cover prices on magazines these days? With ad revenues down, many top-tier magazines now cost $7 or $8 at the newsstand.
  • I don’t have the foggiest idea what percentage of magazines are purchased at airports. It’s probably not that significant. But if air travel was down in the first half (it was) I suppose fewer people were buying magazines at airports.

With all that said, I’m not reading any more into this than it being one more bad metric for publishers in a year filled with bad metrics. I’m sure newsstand sales will rebound when the time is right.

But in the spirit of kicking them when they’re down, Wal-Mart has just announced that it’s implementing a new floor-plan that will put magazines in the back of the store, alongside music, video games and electronics.

At a level, it makes sense; consumer electronics aren’t near the back of the store because they don’t sell well. That department is usually one of the most crowded; it’s where all the wish-list shoppers loiter while the serious shoppers are boring us to tears in the throw-pillows and laundry-detergent aisles.

Further, the current newsstand location at Wal-Mart, wherever it is, can’t possibly be a great position, sandwiched in there somewhere between diet remedies and pet toys.

And finally, say what you will about the people who run Wal-Mart; they aren’t stupid when it comes to maximizing sales-per-square-foot. If they’ve done their research and they think magazines are going to sell better in the vicinity of music CDs and other entertainment goods, I can’t argue.

But I can say that, symbolically, for magazine publishers, it feels like just one more kick in the front of the pants.

Why the URL is less important every day

Tuesday, September 8th, 2009

I remember reading, in the early days of the Web, how large companies were paying hundreds of thousands of dollars to purchase meaningful URLs. For instance, McDonald’s wasn’t the first owner of www.mcdonalds.com.

About 9 years, ago, I tried to sell a URL that I was abandoning. I found a broker who promised to auction it off, estimating that it might be worth $15-20 thousand. The bubble burst, the auction never happened, and the URL simply expired — sitting unused until sometime in the past year when another company started using it.

The URL remains a most important locator for online information. But the importance of branding a URL — or of obtaining a URL that perfectly matches your brand — is declining.

Jonathan Richman at iMedia Connection offers 4 technologies that are responsible for its declining importance.

They are:

Search engines: The power of search is well-known. More people find websites through search than by typing in the URL;

Browsers: New-generation browsers like Google Chrome and Firefox skip the need for going to a search engine; just type a search term in the address box and they deliver search results;

URL shortening: Sites like Twitter, with strict limitations on size, force URLs to be shortened dramatically. Tools like TinyURL and Bit.ly exist to do this. Which means the URL for this page, as an example goes from http://www.themarketfarm.com/wordpress/2009/09/08/why-the-url-is-less-important-every-day/ to http://tinyurl.com/nq6d2y — which is pretty efficient, except any unique branding disappears.

The QR code: Popular in Asia and Europe, you take a picture of the QR code on your smart phone, and it will take you directly to the related website.

Overlooked in Richman’s blog, which is more detailed and well worth reading, is a fifth technology of social networking. More and more businesses are using Facebook, Twitter and other sites to attract audience; these work based on the names of companies and communities — not web addresses. So the brand of the company once again becomes more important than the brand of its URL.

The ultimate point, though, is that if you have a URL you like, don’t spend too much to brand it. And if you have a URL you don’t like, you can work around it.

What’s the economic value of a journalist?

Tuesday, September 8th, 2009

Journalists are historically thick about the notion that they are part of a business model; that they are employed not so much for the public good but because somebody has figured out how to make more money from their work than it costs to produce. That thickness is part of what makes them good at what they do; good journalists tend to follow the trail of information regardless of how they fit into someone else’s profit motive. It’s also why the outsider complaint — “The reporter only wrote that story to sell papers” — never gets any traction.

But the business model under which  most journalists have always worked is under attack right now, and that’s changing the very basics of the job: who wants to hire them, what the job requires, and how much it pays.

In recent good times, a newspaper would bring in about $1.35 in revenue for every $1 spent to run the place. That includes such inelastic expenses as distribution and printing. If you eliminate those expenses from the equation (which an economist wouldn’t do, but this is a journalist-centric view, in which the value of a newspaper to its readers and advertisers is directly proportional to the quality of its reportage) then the economic value of a journalist is at least 1.35 times salary and benefits.

But in times like this, newspaper profits are down — which means the economic value of  journalists is down too. The work of the newsroom simply produces less profit so, therefore, the value of each person in that newsroom is less.

Media companies deal with this as any business would: When profits drop, you reduce costs. Most media start with manufacturing: production, printing and distribution. (Tips for reducing production costs; 34 tips for cutting costs; United Media cost-reduction strategy.)

But when profits continue to drop, people start to lose their jobs. And despite what journalists like to think about their value, cutting reporters and editors usually stops the bleeding pretty quickly. That’s because producing news isn’t the same as producing, say, cars or other manufactured goods.

If you cut people from the auto assembly line, you can’t make as many cars. Which means you can’t sell as many cars. In a recession, that’s OK because fewer people want to buy those cars anyway; jobs get cut because there’s an imbalance between supply and demand.

But in media, you can cut an untold number of reporters and editors without actually reducing output (Journalism jobs decrease 34% Jan 08-Jun 09). The quality of the reporting might suffer; graphics might not be as well thought-out; typos and errors may increase. But the audience still gets the same quantity of news, and the advertisers still get the same audience.

When a recession ends, a car manufacturer can’t sell more cars unless it hires back workers to increase production. But a newspaper can see advertising revenues increase at the end of a recession regardless of whether it puts more people back into the newsroom. That’s why financial and spreadsheet types like investing in media; the correlation between employment and profit is indirect enough that they can choose to ignore it.

This can go on for a long time, and it has. Eventually, people start saying things like, “That newspaper is just a shadow of its former self.” And any rational explanation about declining profitability should include the long-term effect of decreasing quality and comprehensiveness.

But that’s simply not the entire reason newspapers, magazines, radio and TV are struggling; I’d argue it’s not even a major factor — just a bad symptom.

The real reason is competition. Years ago, a major metropolitan morning newspaper’s only competition was the afternoon paper. (Remember, the competition isn’t for readers; it’s for advertising revenue). Then came radio, television, cable television, city magazines, alternative weeklies, etc. They may all serve readers differently, but their money comes from the same pot of regional advertisers. More recently, add Google Ad Words,  online magazines such as Slate and Huffington Post, bloggers like Matt Drudge,  social networking like Facebook and Twitter, and dozens of other business models I can’t even think of. The one thing all of these have in common is that they demand a piece of the same marketing budgets that are the financial foundation of newspapers.

Many of these newer organizations pay journalists — but none pay as much for as many journalists as did the old-line media. So not only do newspapers have more competition, journalists have more competition.

All of which is a roundabout way of saying I’m not patient enough to calculate the actual economic value of a journalist. But the following items seem clear:

  1. Economic value and social value are separate issues.
  2. Traditional media still seem to be experiencing declining economic value of their journalists. For example:
    Effect of mass layoffs at newspapers
    New news models
    Bloodletting in the newsroom
    Layoff tracker
  3. Meanwhile, types of businesses that didn’t previously value journalists now seem to be the places where the value of journalists is growing. For example:
    This is what you get when you pay for reporters
    The growth of brand journalism
    Best job in the world
    Attention corporations: Hire a journalist
    Winery hires lifestyle correspondent
  4. Entire business models that do away with the cost of journalists are emerging — and starting to attract big money. For example:
    Examiner.com buys NowPublic for $25 million
    www.heightsobserver.org
    www.printcasting.com
  5. Old business models are trying to revive the value of journalists by finding other revenue streams to pay for them. For example:
    How newspapers that charge for content are faring
    Murdoch charges for content
    Electronic newspaper update
    Non-profit newspapers
    AP battles with news aggregators
  6. Old-line business models that see the industry’s decline as merely a function of journalism’s decline somehow seem angry and not very realistic.
    Our Hometown News, Strongsville, OH
  7. The decline in value is related to the recession; when recovery starts in earnest, the decline will flatten out.
    Cox Enterprises hopes for positive earnings
  8. But the decline in value wasn’t caused by the recession; it was caused by huge disruption of traditional business models that involve journalists. For example:
  9. Journalists may be unwilling participants in the dizzying changes taking place. But those who are determined to make themselves valuable will succeed — whether or not it’s through a traditional channel.
    What journalism students need today

    Listen up, old-school journalists
    The future of news is scarcity
  10. I’m pretty sure the economic value of journalists isn’t declining; it’s declined among media that follow traditional business models, but that’s being offset by new models and innovations that are only now starting to emerge.

Pandora radio: maybe the best thing the ‘net has ever offered

Saturday, September 5th, 2009

pandora-radioAfter hearing about Pandora.com for months, I just loaded it on my Blackberry. And then on my laptop.

Pandora is internet radio; you pick an artist or song that you like and it builds a station of music with similar qualities. If it plays a song you don’t like, a click on the thumbs-down icon helps Pandora refine what it plays for you.

I’ve never used an application that loaded any easier or was more intuitive to start up. Over the course of a 45-minute drive in which I was the passenger, I loaded it, got familiar with the controls and set up about 15 stations — all of which play music that I could listen to all day. When I got to my laptop, I loaded the application in less than a minute, then typed in my password, and got to precisely where I’d left off on the Blackberry.

With a $6 cable from Radio Shack, you can plug the Blackberry (or iPhone) into the utility port of a car radio or a set of powered speakers.

Which means that with no learning curve, and for the cost of my cell phone data plan — which I was already paying — I can have the best of all musical worlds (mental note: start a new Pandora station around Candide or Leonard Bernstein).

It’s better than my iPod, because I don’t have to select each song and be my own DJ.

It’s way better than Sirius/XM because the channels I create are better focused than anything satellite radio offers; and I don’t have to pay the $6.99-$12.99/month subscription fee.

I don’t think Pandora is going to hurt the sale of MP3 players; most of them do more now than simply play music files.

But Pandora is everything that Sirius/XM could hope to be — yet easier, better and cheaper. It is the ultimate disruptive technology; it delivers radio at no cost, using technology that lots of people already possess, and it strikes a magical balance between doing all the work and giving the user control.

Last I heard, Sirius/XM was losing more than 100,000 customers a month. I can’t imagine that pace has continued. But I’m guessing the downward trend has. And with its dependence on expensive space-based satellites and human-programmed channels, satellite radio is a precarious business model that has yet to make money.

In Greek mythology, Pandora carried a magical box that contained all things harmful to humans — disease, fear, unhappiness, etc. Zeus instructed her not to open it, but when her curiosity got the best of her, she spilled its contents into the world and upon mankind.

To most of us, this Pandora is a welcome innovation. But to Sirius/XM — and broadcast radio over time — Pandora and the others that will inevitably follow it must look like the thunder from Olympus itself.

With all our communication channels, face-to-face is still king

Friday, August 28th, 2009

BtoBOnline.com reports on a study from Forbes Insights that executives still strongly prefer in-person meetings over web-meetings or other virtual get-togethers.

I couldn’t find the study myself  and no link was provided, so I’m taking everything that BtoB reports on it as my only source and at face value.

According to the the study out of 760 business executives surveyed in June:

  • 84% prefer in-person contact to virtual;
  • 85% said it helps them build stronger relationships;
  • 77% said it provides a greater opportunity to read another person;
  • Still, 58% said they travel less for business now than in January 2008.

All of which strikes me as obvious.

Face-to-face contact will always be the highest form of human interaction, and nothing replaces it.
The question is NEVER whether it would be better to have a face-to-face meeting. The question is always whether the circumstances justify the cost/inconvenience.

At any given time, a video chat or Webex presentation might accomplish the immediate goal, but don’t ever confuse that with being just as good as a personal meeting.

BPA Worldwide freezes rates, remains arrogant and irrelevant

Wednesday, August 26th, 2009

BPA Worldwide, a leader in providing third-party circulation audits, has announced that it’s freezing membership dues and audit rates at their July 2008 levels — good through June 2010.

If you’re in the business, you know that BPA is especially strong among magazines with controlled circulation. If you’re not in the business, you need to know that third-party circulation audits are how publications validate their readership claims to advertisers.

BPA is facing obsolescence at an astonishing rate. If BPA is a dinosaur, then the killer meteor has already hit the Earth and the toxic cloud of extinction is on its way. Holding rates will make as much difference to the organization’s future as putting on a sweater.

Am I being a little harsh here? Perhaps. But set aside the fact that for the previous 20 years of my career BPA was one of the most sluggish, obstinate, arrogant and regressive entities I had to deal with. Set aside the fact that — even though it was owned by its customers — it always, without exception, acted as though its role was to prevent me from innovating in my job. Set aside that I don’t know anyone in publishing (though I’m sure there are a few) who doesn’t take some quiet pleasure at seeing BPA suffer.

What BPA faces aside from all that is the fact that its member magazines must find ways to radically reduce distribution costs. That’s required to offset declines in two key performance indicators: advertising pages sold, and cost-per-thousand (CPM) paid for an average page of advertising.

In other words, advertisers are reaching readers less often, and every reader they reach is worth less to them today than it used to be. The only thing advertisers care about is how many people take a measurable action as a result of seeing an ad.

And what is BPA’s ultimate value to publishers? Proof of readers reached. There is nothing that it does, or wants to do, to measure the responsiveness of those readers.

In my last year running business-to-business magazines, I withdrew two of them from membership in BPA. Not because I was so frustrated with the deplorable service BPA provided; but because my advertisers no longer cared about BPA audits. They told me they wanted to know how my audience would respond to their advertising; if I could provide better response per thousand readers than my competitors, nobody cared to see the expensive and painstakingly designed BPA audit statement. (To be fair, advertisers had been telling me that with increasing urgency for about eight years; it just reached a watershed last year — probably brought on by the recession.)

Since that time, I’ve heard of about two-dozen magazines that have terminated their BPA membership — something that used to be as acceptable in media circles as, say, passing gas in an elevator. Entire divisions of media companies have simply walked away from BPA because the organization’s work has ceased to be of value.

I suppose that freezing rates is a reasonable first response. But I don’t give BPA enough credit to understand how inadequate that step will prove to be as its irrelevance grows like a toxic cloud.

Resistance is futile: You WILL buy an e-reader

Thursday, August 6th, 2009

Amazon’s got the Kindle, now in generation 2.5. Sony just announced that it’s reducing the price of its base-level e-reader to $199 — $100 less than the Kindle — though you can’t download books via wi-fi like you can with Amazon’s unit.

You can also buy e-readers from Panasonic and Samsung, with another coming soon from a startup called Plastic Logic. Microsoft had been rumored to be moving toward the e-reader market, and everyone seems to be waiting for what Apple might come up with.

The Kindle is built around a proprietary platform, as I assume Apple’s would be.

Early this year, Barnes & Noble bought Fictionwise — an e-book vendor — to compete directly with Amazon. (Here’s one article announcing the purchase.)

Do you get the sense that you’re going to be hearing a lot about e-books in the months and years ahead?

At various times, it was unimaginable that we’d all have our own computers and cell phones. So if you’re insisting right now that the book can’t be improved upon and there’s no reason for an e-book reader to enter your life, it’s just a matter of time before you change your mind.

The price will have to come down; a war will have to be fought and won over platforms and standards, and at some point, some respected company will have to take a leap and make its products available only in e-book format. None of this will take as long as it is for BlueRay to replace DVDs.

Nintendo actually put an e-reader on the market in 2004 — as did Sony and a few others. They flopped; perhaps because the technology wasn’t advanced enough yet, but more likely because the content providers didn’t have enough economic reason to support it. At the time, an e-reader was just another gadget.

That’s changed.

From magazine companies to newspapers to book publishers, nobody’s business model can continue to absorb the high cost of printing and distributing paper. So your resistance is futile; there is just too much corporate desire now to replace paper with something digital.

At some point, there will be a first New York Times bestseller that never actually came out in a printed edition. I’m putting my money on it happening by 2013.

According to the chart below from Forrester Research, more than 4 out of 5 people are familiar with the concept of an e-reader — compared to less than 2 out of 3 last year.  And while ownership of e-readers has more than doubled in the past year, market penetration is still less than 2 percent.

So do the math: Hardware providers are climbing over each other to break into this market; content providers are eager to support them; consumers have very quickly become aware and curious.

It sounds like an obvious post-recession boom to me.

 

The new phone books have arrived and been duly discarded

Monday, August 3rd, 2009

Two large, orange bags just appeared on my front porch the other day. Each contained several pounds of phone books. There was the Yellow Pages, the White Pages, the Business-to-Business Yellow Pages and the Yellow Pages Supplement. Two complete sets of them.

Without taking them out of the bag, I put them on the curb for recycling.

“Hello, AT&T? It’s Alexander Graham Bell calling and he wants his business model back.”

Seriously, this is just one of at least three sets of phone directories I’ll receive this year. Two other companies produce similar volumes of phone books and surreptitiously drop them at my front door at various times during the year.

It’s been about five years since I’ve even opened a phone book.

In every industry I know, printed directories are disappearing faster than money from the cash-for-clunkers program. For the companies that produce them, printed phone books are like crack; they’re addicted to the revenue, but it’s not doing anyone any good. The effort to keep phone books alive is distracting their publishers from the need to find a more useful business. And you don’t have to be a tree-hugger to cringe at the tremendous waste in resources these unwanted products represent.

OK, I confess that having a residential phone book is a small comfort (though I still don’t remember the last time I used one). But if you’re running a business I wouldn’t spend much on Yellow Pages advertising. No matter how small or local the business might be, your resources would be better spent building an affordable little website and making sure it’s listed on every free online directory you can find.